The Effecient Market is Dead: Long Live the Effecient Market

Tallying both sides of the Atlantic there has now been of 3 trillion dollars in money pumped into the financial markets and the stock markets on both sides of the Atlantic are posting all time daily record gains.  Does this represent  a vote by capitalists in the affirmative or contra free markets?  Interestingly when the markets were tanking it seemed to be because the advanced capitalist governments seemed hesitant to massively interfere with the workings of the market.  3 trillion worth of intervention later and the markets have unanimously voted in favour of intervention.

The other interesting point to be made is that 3 trillion seems to be a useful measure (so far) of how sorely free markets got the prices wrong: or does it.  All the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH)  says is that prices represent all the relevant information available to economic agents at the time of transacting.  It says nothing about the quality of that information.

So rearranging: the EMH holds that shitty information will be as efficiently represented in price formation as good information and thus tells us nothing about whether prices reflect “true” prices, but, rather simply, and uselessly, that prices reflect all the shitty information that is available.  So in a perverse way had the markets not gotten prices wrong to the tune of 3 trillion then it would have been because markets were inefficient.  Give that man a Faux Nobel.

In this light we can make sense of the Mark Carney twist


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