BOC: Carney needs a different colour of ski goggles

Canada’s economy is projected to contract through mid-2009, with real GDP dropping by 1.2 per cent this year on an annual average basis. As policy actions begin to take hold in Canada and globally, and with support from the past depreciation of the Canadian dollar, real GDP is expected to rebound, growing by 3.8 per cent in 2010.  Emphasis added.

But as the Globe notes:

The central bank is not alone, however, in seeing a strong rebound. The Conference Board of Canada has a forecast for 3.6 per cent, and it will likely revise it higher since it is clear that next week’s budget will be fatter than the Conference Board had assumed initially, said Pedro Antunes, director of forecasting.

I guess neither macromodel has a variable called goodwill or if they do they have really goosed up the value.

Anyway all a very nice test of  “prediction” as the last refuge of what seperates the men from the boys when it comes to separating the wheat from the chaff in social science.  As an aside does a failed prediction count on the falsification or verification side of the debate?

3 thoughts on “BOC: Carney needs a different colour of ski goggles

  1. of course if you had 1.3 % nominal growth with 2.5% deflation you would have 3.8% real growth. Somehow I do not think that is what they were thinking.

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